❌ Loss Analysis
For win-rate review
Our Bid
$14,720
Winning Bid (est.)
~$13,540
8% under our price
Lost Reason
Vendor underbid by 8%
Travis went with Bluegrass Glass Co. — he said "you guys do better work but I gotta hit my number on this one." Acknowledged we'd be back-on-deck for Lot 16 & 18.
Competitor
Bluegrass Glass Co.
Loss Category
Price (controllable?)
Decision Maker
Travis Watts
Decision Driver
Lowest price
📚 Win-Rate Pattern
Our win rate vs. Bluegrass Glass Co. on Watts builds: 4 won / 2 lost (67%). Both losses were spec home builds (lower price sensitivity). Custom builds = 100% win.
Pipeline Stage (final)
Project closed Apr 9 after Travis confirmed Bluegrass got the PO. Linked to OPP-2026-0419 (warranty sweep) as goodwill counter-move.
Estimates (1 — rejected)
EST-2026-0428
Rejected Apr 9
Full house glass package — 18 IGUs, 2 sliding doors, frameless master shower, wet-bar mirror.
$14,720
Sent Mar 31 · rejected after re-bid round
Activity
✕
Project LostApr 9, 4:30 PM
Travis: "Going with Bluegrass on this one. Their number was 8% under. You'll see Lot 16." Logged loss reason: vendor underbid by 8%.
📞
Travis WattsApr 9, 4:25 PM Connected
Travis called to give the bad news. 4 min. Said our quality is better but spec home margin doesn't allow the spread on this one.
📝
Philip Schultz (note)Apr 7, 2:00 PM
Reviewed material costs. We could match their number but GP would drop to 38%. Decision: hold our price, position on quality.
✉
Travis WattsApr 6, 10:15 AM
"Got a competing bid that's about $1.2K under. Anything you can do to sharpen the pencil?"
👁
Customer viewed estimate (3rd)Apr 4, 9:30 PM
Last view before re-bid request. Spent 8 min comparing line items.
✉
Marcus RiveraMar 31, 5:00 PM
Sent EST-2026-0428 ($14,720). Full house glass package for Lot 14 spec build.
🏘
Marcus RiveraMar 27, 11:00 AM
Site visit + plan review w/ Travis. Walked floor plan, confirmed window schedule, picked Cardinal LoĒ-366 for energy package.
📱
Project createdMar 24, 8:30 AM
Travis sent house plans for Lot 14 quote. Deadline: bid by Apr 1.